The truth about fuel price cycles – and how to time your fill-up

You drive past the servo and do a double-take, because the price of fuel has jumped 30 cents overnight. What gives?!

Unleaded petrol prices move up and down with some regularity in Australia’s bigger cities, and knowing your local patterns can save you more than just a few cents. So how do you crack the code to paying less money for exactly the same product? Let’s start by examining…

The awkward truth about fuel price cycles

Fuel prices do follow a pattern in bigger cities, but that pattern isn’t consistent across cities, states, or even days of the week.

Depending on the city, the lowest points of a fuel price cycle could be anywhere from one week to six weeks apart or even longer. Perth’s is the shortest cycle with a fairly steady weekly rhythm – so cheap Tuesday still holds water in the west. Meanwhile in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, it can easily take a month and a half to reach a low point again. Cycles tend to sharply increase from their lowest point then gradually fall again, which explains why prices can seemingly jump overnight.

What drives fuel price cycles?

As the ACCC explains, price cycles are shaped by the pricing decisions of fuel retailers rather than the wholesale cost of fuel. Basically, when there’s more competition, retailers will adjust their prices to attract consumers and to turn a profit at various points of the cycle. As such, you don’t see these cycles happening in smaller cities like Darwin, Hobart or Canberra – though some regional locations have recorded price cycles. Diesel, which doesn’t have as much retail demand as petrol, is also not really subject to these same cycles.

Because petrol price cycles can vary so much, most Aussie states and territories now have a mandatory petrol price reporting scheme to help drivers compare prices online. Several have a state-run app you can use, and here they are:

• NSW & ACT: FuelCheck
• Victoria : Mandatory fuel price reporting is on its way. Third-party apps are currently available.
• Queensland : Various third-party options (no state-run app)
• Western Australia : Fuel Watch
• South Australia : Various third-party options (no state-run app)
• Tasmania : FuelCheck TAS
• Northern Territory : MyFuelNT

What affects fuel prices more broadly?

General factors can include oil prices, global politics, freight rates, the Australian-US dollar exchange rate, and benchmark fuel prices.

The price of Singapore Mogas 95 is a key benchmark for unleaded petrol in Australia. It can take two weeks for changes to this benchmark to reflect in retail prices, and longer in regional areas. Fuel excise rates, which we pay at the bowser to help pay for road upkeep and other services, are indexed to inflation and change over time. Of course, the distance from the import terminal to the servo can also affect fuel prices – as anyone who’s bought fuel in outback Australia can attest to!

How do I find low fuel prices near me?

If you’re fuelling up in one of Australia’s five biggest cities, you’re in luck. The ACCC monitors and reports on fuel cycles in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth. You can head on over to their handy page to see where fuel prices are on a tidy graph for each city.

You can also use a fuel price app to compare prices at different servos in your area. By using the ACCC page and a fuel price app together, you could technically narrow down the cheapest price in your neighbourhood on the cheapest day of the local cycle!

Does the fuel price cycle really matter?

Well, it depends. If you love saving your pennies then it’s worth watching fuel price cycles, because you could save you up to $600 or more per year by timing your fill-ups. A 30-cent-per-litre difference could cost you an extra $15 or more every time you refuel, which does add up. Just don’t waste fuel driving around to find a better deal, because the information’s all there at your fingertips.

If you’re more of a chaotic type who only fuels up once you’re running on fumes – well, at least there shouldn’t be long lines when you fuel up at higher prices!

And lastly, 5 other quick tips to save on fuel costs:

• Cut down on luggage and reduce weight in the car wherever possible.
• Remove rooftop tents and pods when not in use, to reduce air drag.
• Keep windows rolled up on the highway for the same reason.
• Drive smoothly, as fast accelerating and braking can burn fuel faster.
• Look to fuel-efficient vehicles, EVs or hybrids when you upgrade to your next car.